Banca de DEFESA: JULIANA SOBREIRA ARGUELHO

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : JULIANA SOBREIRA ARGUELHO
DATA : 13/05/2021
HORA: 08:00
LOCAL: Google Meet
TÍTULO:

Plants of the Future: Will species used in forest restoration support climate change in the Cerrado-Amazon Transition?

PALAVRAS-CHAVES:

Decade of Restoration, applied ecology, species distribution modeling, ecological restoration

PÁGINAS: 245
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Biológicas
ÁREA: Ecologia
SUBÁREA: Ecologia Aplicada
RESUMO:

Future climate changes and modifications in land use and land cover are anthropic processes of threats to global biodiversity. For the conservation and restoration processes of impacted areas to be efficient, it is necessary to investigate the effects of climate change on local plant species. Here, we aim to understand which plant species, which are being used in the recovery process of impacted areas of the Cerrado-Amazon Transition, will support future climates. To verify whether species used in forest restoration will find suitable areas in the future throughout this transition, we model, using niche-based models, their present potential distributions by projecting them into the future climate (2070). We used eight modeling algorithms, three global climate models (GCMs) and selected models based on True Skill Statistic (TSS). The post hoc chi-square test showed significant differences among the present, optimistic future and pessimistic future for 45 species of the 48 modeled species. Our results indicated 15 species as most promising for restoration in the Cerrado-Amazon Transition considering future climate change scenarios. Ensemble models showed that climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of all selected species (15 species) and not selected (29 species), with that, we observe how the anthropic actions in relation to the climatic changes can modify the distributions of these species, with high suitability for some and low or loss of suitability for others, modifying the landscape and possibly the traditional life of many people who live from these species in the Transition Cerrado-Amazon region.

MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Interno - 255123001 - ALEXANDRE DE AZEVEDO OLIVAL
Interno - 253812001 - PEDRO VASCONCELOS EISENLOHR
Externo à Instituição - THADEU SOBRAL DE SOUZA - UFMT
Externo à Instituição - VANESSA LEITE REZENDE - UFLA